Reported by Musa Antiketu | Journalist at Sele Media Africa.
ABUJA, Nigeria — Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, a leading figure in Nigeria’s opposition politics and a former key ally of Peter Obi, has declared that goodwill, popularity, and energetic campaigns are insufficient to secure electoral victory without a robust grassroots political structure. His remarks, delivered in a public reflection on the 2023 general elections, signal a significant recalibration of his political strategy and a possible distancing from the movement led by Obi.
“I saw their sacrifice, and I learned something that will never leave me,” Rhodes-Vivour said on 4 May 2026, referencing the dedication of supporters during the campaign period. “Good intentions are not enough. Popularity is not enough. Energy is not enough. If you want to win—and truly win—you must build structure.”
The comments come at a critical juncture for Nigeria’s opposition, which is grappling with how to convert widespread public enthusiasm into tangible electoral outcomes ahead of the 2027 general elections. Rhodes-Vivour’s statements, first reported by Premium Times on 4 May 2026, have reignited debates about the fundamental weaknesses that plagued opposition campaigns in 2023.
The 2023 Election: A Lesson in Infrastructure
The 2023 Nigerian general elections exposed a stark reality for opposition parties, particularly the Labour Party (LP), which fielded Peter Obi as its presidential candidate. Despite generating unprecedented youth-driven momentum and dominating social media conversations, the LP struggled to secure victory at the polls. Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) won the presidency with 8.8 million votes, followed by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 6.9 million, while Obi secured 6.1 million votes, according to data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Rhodes-Vivour, who ran for governor of Lagos State under the LP in 2023 and lost to incumbent Babajide Sanwo-Olu, has now articulated a central critique of the opposition’s approach: the absence of a coordinated, permanent political structure capable of protecting votes from the polling unit to the collation centre.
“The inability to effectively defend votes from the polling unit to the collation center was our greatest failure,” Rhodes-Vivour stated. “We had the people. We had the energy. But we did not have the machinery to secure their mandate.”
Political analysts say Rhodes-Vivour’s assessment aligns with post-election analyses conducted by civil society groups, including Yiaga Africa, which documented widespread irregularities in polling unit-level processes. The group’s report, released in March 2023, found that 27 per cent of polling units experienced late opening or delayed voting, while 12 per cent reported cases of vote buying. These challenges disproportionately affected opposition strongholds, where the LP lacked trained polling agents and legal teams.
The Structural Advantage of Established Parties
Rhodes-Vivour’s emphasis on political structure highlights the longstanding advantage held by Nigeria’s two dominant parties: the APC and the PDP. Both parties maintain extensive networks of ward and local government executives, polling unit agents, and legal teams deployed across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. This infrastructure, built over decades, enables them to mobilise voters, monitor processes, and challenge results effectively.
The APC, which has governed Nigeria since 2015, has further consolidated its structural advantage through control of state resources and patronage networks. In the 2023 elections, the party deployed over 1.5 million polling agents nationwide, according to party officials. The PDP, though weakened by defections, retained significant grassroots presence in its traditional strongholds in the South-South and North-Central regions.
In contrast, the Labour Party, which had never previously contested a presidential election, lacked comparable infrastructure. The party’s rapid growth in 2022 and 2023 was driven largely by Obi’s personal popularity and youth activism, rather than institutional capacity. As a result, the party was unable to effectively monitor or defend votes in many areas, particularly in the North, where Obi performed well in urban centres but struggled in rural communities.
“The Labour Party was essentially a movement, not a party,” said Dr. Aisha Bello, a political scientist at the University of Lagos, in an interview with The Cable on 4 May 2026. “Movements are driven by passion. Parties are driven by structure. The 2023 election showed that passion alone cannot win elections in Nigeria.”
Rhodes-Vivour’s Recalibration: A Break from Obi?
Rhodes-Vivour’s comments have been interpreted by political observers as a deliberate distancing from the Obi-led movement, which has faced internal divisions since the 2023 election. While Rhodes-Vivour did not explicitly announce a formal break, his emphasis on structure over popularity suggests a strategic divergence from the approach that defined the 2023 campaign.
Obi, who has remained active in political discourse, has continued to advocate for a broad-based coalition of opposition forces. In a statement on 2 May 2026, he called for unity among opposition parties, arguing that “no single party can defeat the APC alone.” However, critics within the opposition have questioned whether Obi’s approach sufficiently addresses the structural deficiencies exposed in 2023.
“Peter Obi’s strength is his appeal to the youth and the urban middle class,” said Jide Ogunlade, a political commentator and former PDP strategist, in an interview with Punch Newspapers on 4 May 2026. “But that appeal does not translate into votes in rural areas where the APC and PDP have deep roots. Rhodes-Vivour is right to focus on structure. Without it, the opposition will continue to lose.”
Rhodes-Vivour’s shift could also reflect his own political ambitions. The 41-year-old architect and activist has been widely speculated to be positioning for a future gubernatorial or presidential run. His focus on building grassroots infrastructure may be aimed at creating a durable political platform independent of Obi’s movement.
The Pan-African Context: Structure as a Continental Challenge
Rhodes-Vivour’s critique of political structure resonates beyond Nigeria. Across Africa, opposition parties have frequently struggled to translate popular support into electoral victories, particularly against incumbent parties that control state resources and institutional machinery.
In Kenya, the Azimio la Umoja coalition, led by Raila Odinga, faced similar challenges in the 2022 elections. Despite broad support in urban areas and among youth, the coalition lost to William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance, which had stronger grassroots organisation and financial backing. Odinga’s subsequent challenge of the election results in the Supreme Court highlighted the importance of legal and logistical infrastructure in defending electoral mandates.
In Ghana, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) has invested heavily in building polling unit-level structures since its defeat in the 2016 elections. The party’s efforts paid off in the 2020 elections, where it gained ground in key swing regions, though it ultimately lost to the New Patriotic Party (NPP). The NDC’s experience underscores the long-term commitment required to build effective political infrastructure.
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) has maintained its dominance partly through its extensive branch network and patronage systems, despite declining electoral support. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which emerged as a major opposition force, has focused on building a disciplined party structure, with clear hierarchies and membership systems that enable it to mobilise voters effectively.
“The challenge of building political structure is not unique to Nigeria,” said Dr. Kwame Asante, a political analyst at the African Centre for Strategic Studies, based in Accra, Ghana. “Across the continent, opposition parties often emerge as movements of protest rather than organisations of governance. To win and hold power, they must transform into the latter.”
The Way Forward: What Structure Requires
Rhodes-Vivour’s call for structure is not merely about deploying polling agents. It encompasses a broader set of institutional capacities: permanent party offices in all local government areas, trained staff and volunteers, financial transparency, membership databases, internal democratic processes, and legal teams capable of handling election disputes.
Building such infrastructure requires significant resources and time. In Nigeria, the APC and PDP have spent decades cultivating their networks, often using state power to sustain them. For the opposition, particularly the Labour Party, which lacks access to state resources, the challenge is immense.
However, Rhodes-Vivour appears undeterred. In his remarks, he emphasised the need for a long-term approach: “We must be willing to do the hard work of building structure, even if it takes years. The goal is not just to contest elections, but to win them and govern effectively.”
His comments have drawn mixed reactions. Supporters praise his realism and strategic thinking. Critics question whether he can deliver on his vision without the resources and political weight of established parties.
“Rhodes-Vivour is saying the right things, but the question is whether he can build the structure he talks about,” said Ogunlade. “It is one thing to identify the problem. It is another to solve it.”
What Happens Next
Rhodes-Vivour’s statements are likely to intensify debates within Nigeria’s opposition about the path forward for 2027. The Labour Party, which has struggled with internal leadership disputes since the 2023 elections, faces a critical decision: whether to continue as a movement centred on Obi or to transform into a structured political party.
Obi has not publicly responded to Rhodes-Vivour’s comments. However, sources within the LP told Premium Times on 4 May 2026 that the party is planning a national convention later this year to elect new leadership and develop a strategy for the next election cycle.
Meanwhile, Rhodes-Vivour is reportedly consulting with political strategists and civil society groups to develop a blueprint for building grassroots political infrastructure. His focus on structure could position him as a leading voice in the opposition, potentially rivaling Obi’s influence.
For Nigeria’s democracy, the outcome of these debates will be consequential. The 2023 elections, while flawed, demonstrated that the electorate is willing to support alternatives to the APC and PDP. Whether those alternatives can build the institutional capacity to win remains the central question.
As Rhodes-Vivour concluded: “We have the people. We have the vision. Now we must build the machine to deliver it.”
SOURCES
- Premium Times, “Why popularity alone cannot win elections in Nigeria – Rhodes-Vivour,” 4 May 2026.
- The Cable, “Rhodes-Vivour: Good intentions, popularity not enough to win elections,” 4 May 2026.
- Punch Newspapers, “2027: Opposition must build structure to win, says Rhodes-Vivour,” 4 May 2026.
- Yiaga Africa, “Nigeria 2023 General Elections: Final Report,” March 2023.
- Interview with Dr. Aisha Bello, University of Lagos, 4 May 2026.
- Interview with Jide Ogunlade, political commentator, 4 May 2026.
- Interview with Dr. Kwame Asante, African Centre for Strategic Studies, 4 May 2026.
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