Cameroon Presidential Election: As Paul Biya Looks Set to Win, What’s at Stake?!

Reported by Marian Opeyemi Fasesan | Sele Media Africa

As Cameroon prepares for its October 12, 2025 presidential election, incumbent Paul Biya, aged 92 and in power since 1982, is the clear frontrunner. His reign has already become one of the longest in Africa’s modern history. [1]

Yet the stakes of this election extend well beyond who holds the presidency. Below are the key issues, tensions, and risks that will shape Cameroon’s future.

1. Political Dominance & Election Credibility

• Biya has long benefited from a political structure that favors the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), including control over state institutions and security forces. [2]
• The main opposition leader, Maurice Kamto, was barred from running by the electoral commission—a move that many analysts view as politically motivated to weaken genuine competition. [3]
• Voter apathy is growing, especially among the youth, who see elections as predetermined. Some say Biya’s victory is assured before ballots are cast. [4]

What’s at stake:

• The legitimacy of Cameroon’s electoral process.
  [11/10, 12:00 pm] ChatGPT: What’s at stake:
• Whether promises of economic renewal will translate into meaningful change.
• Whether the government can deliver inclusive growth and reduce inequality.
• Whether discontent among young Cameroonians evolves into political pressure.

1. Insecurity & Regional Conflicts

• The Anglophone Conflict in the Northwest and Southwest remains unresolved. Separatist groups continue to disrupt daily life, impose election boycotts, and challenge government control. [6]
• In the Far North, Boko Haram and allied militant groups have increased cross-border attacks from Nigeria. [6]
• The election could intensify tensions: contested results may be met with agitation in zones already under strain. [8]

What’s at stake:

• Security and stability in conflict‑prone regions.
• Whether the government chooses repression or political accommodation.
• The potential for escalation if opposition voices are silenced in conflict zones.

1. International Relations & External Pressures

• Cameroon’s strategic importance—economically and geographically—means major powers are watching. France, China, and regional actors have stakes in Cameroon’s stability and alignment. [8]
  [11/10, 12:00 pm] ChatGPT: – Potential for political unrest if results are contested.
• The durability of the CPDM’s dominance in the absence of credible opposition.

1. Succession & Governance Vacuum

• At 92, concerns over Biya’s health and capacity to govern are widespread. Critics argue that much of the country’s affairs are handled by advisors and inner circles, not the president himself. [1]
• Should Biya win but become incapacitated, Cameroon faces a fragile power transition. Without a clear successor, internal conflicts in the ruling elite could intensify. [5]

What’s at stake:

• Stability in governance during a transition period.
• The potential for elite infighting or institutional paralysis.
• Whether Biya’s rule will outlast his lifespan, and how the system adjusts post‑Biya.

1. Deep Economic and Social Struggles

• Cameroon’s poverty and inequality have stagnated. Despite being a resource-rich country (oil, cocoa, timber), many citizens have not seen improved standards of living. [6]
• Inflation, high cost of living, and youth unemployment are persistent pains, especially for younger generations who feel shut out of opportunities. [7]
• Public frustration is especially high in urban areas and among the youth, many of whom feel disconnected from the system. [4]
  [11/10, 12:00 pm] ChatGPT: – How the government handles human rights, transparency, and civil liberties will influence Cameroon’s foreign aid, investment, and diplomatic relationships.

What’s at stake:

• International legitimacy and Cameroon’s reputation.
• Access to trade, investment, and development aid.
• Risks of sanctions or diplomatic pressure if abuses or election malpractice are proven.

Citations:

1. Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/africa/cameroons-biya-92-heads-eighth-term-despite-clamour-step-aside-2025-10-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
2. Financial Times: www.ft.com/content/2b8fd312-aa36-40a1-813e-188108e1b971?utm_source=chatgpt.com
3. Reuters: www.reuters.com/world/africa/cameroon-elections-body-rejects-candidacy-presidents-main-rival-2025-07-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
4. Africanews: www.africanews.com/2025/10/10/cameroons-youth-lose-faith-ahead-of-presidential-election//?utm_source=chatgpt.com
5. Lansing Institute: lansinginstitute.org/2025/07/15/the-road-to-yaounde-risks-power-and-succession-in-cameroons-2025-vote/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
6. Al Jazeera: www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/11/cameroon-presidential-election-as-paul-biya-set-to-win-whats-at-stake?utm_source=chatgpt.com
7. Al Jazeera: www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2025/10/11/cameroon-presidential-election-as-paul-biya-set-to-win-whats-at-stake?utm_source=chatgpt.com
8. AInvest: www.ainvest.com/news/cameroon-presidential-election-navigating-geopolitical-risks-economic-opportunities-2507/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

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